FROM MIRACLE TO MENACE Alberta, A Carbon Story By David Yager
HOW DID CLIMATE CHANGE BECOME THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE WESTERN WORLD AND HOW DID THE FUELS THAT POWERED MODERN CIVILIZATION BECOME MANKIND'S GREATEST THREAT?
MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOW DID ANYONE BELIEVE THE GLOBAL ENERGY COMPLEX COULD BE COMPLETELY RECONSTRUCTED WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DISCLOCATION AND SEVERE ECONOMIC CONSQUENCES?
THANKS TO YEARS OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM, FALSE PROMISES, MISINFORMATION, FEAR-MONGERING AND SHAMELESS TRIBAL POLITICS, THE WORLD IS CURRENTLY FACING A GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS ENGINEERED BY WEALTHY WESTERN POLICY INFLUENCERS AND VOTE-SEEKING POLITICIANS.
THREE YEARS AGO I SET OUT TO LEARN WHY. REGRETABLY, THE WORLD IS UNFOLDING EXACTLY AS I PREDICTED. READ HOW IT HAPPENED, AND THE ONLY WORKABLE SOLUTIONS TO THE CLIMATE PROBLEM.
Update From The Author - October 2, 2021
Two and half years ago I opened my book with these words, "That's what is supposed to happen when the world decarbonizes by switching away from fossil fuels. Massive economic dislocation and disruption. Did someone forget to tell you that?"
It ends with my summary of a nine months of writing and research. "Unlike so many, I have never felt qualified to decide what the maximum population of the world must be, when we have reached that level, and what the world should look like when we're done. I also believe the billions in the world who don't have electricity should able to get it they want it. I believe more people should be able to move from poverty to the middle class even if they need carbon-based energy to do it."
As for the "climate emergency" and all the costs, government policies, investment intervention and behavior modification required to resolve it, I concluded: "All of this would be much easier to accept if I knew we were collectively doing something that might actually solve the problem at some point in the future...If I have accomplished anything in this book it is hopefully that people understand how many ways the climate change issue has been distorted, hijacked and misdirected, and how little progress can and will be made until more people acknowledge the complexity of the challenge."
ABOUT THE BOOK In the fall of 2019 Albertans endured what is surely the most divisive federal election campaign in history. Four of the five main political parties ran campaigns or espoused policies specifically targeting against one region of the country, one industry, and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of their fellow Canadian.
Exploiting growing fears among Canadians about what the House of Commons declared a “climate emergency”, all parties except the Conservatives campaigned AGAINST Alberta’s oil and gas industry in some way.
The more extreme positions included shutting down the oil sands in the next 10 years, cancelling the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, and banning hydraulic fracturing which would effectively kill Canada’s nascent and promising LNG export industry.
If implemented, these would put hundreds of thousands out of work, deny employment for thousands more, and destroy billions of dollars in investment, wages, industrial activity, and taxes.
Even the Liberals, strong proponents of aggressive climate change policies, could not resist campaigning against the threat of the powerful “oil lobby” which they alleged was working against Canada’s long-term interests.
No region, industry or large group of workers has ever been told during an election campaign that that future of their country and the planet depended on their fellow Canadians losing their jobs, their homes or their companies.
The outcome has deeply divided the country among regional and partisan lines, and will continue to do so for years to come.
Climate change, carbon taxes, pipelines and the future of Alberta’s oil, gas and coal industries have become daily news. If Canada continues in this direction the first casualty of climate change will not be Canadians because of extreme weather events, but the economy of Alberta. The stakes are huge, and not just environmental.
The book examines Alberta through the eyes of the province's massive oil, natural gas and coal industries. A major focus is divisive politics and energy policies that have divided the country in the past, and will continue to divide us for years to come.
But as the book explains, Canada's political determination to save the world by itself will not stop climate change. Global energy demand is forecast to grow by 30% in the next 20 years. With no substitutes for plastics, petrochemicals and heavy transportation, oil consumption will increase no matter what Canada does.
Canada only produces 4% of the worlds oil, 1.6% of total emissions and houses a tiny 0.5% of its population. Canada could disappear entirely and there would be no material reduction in global emissions unless the rest of the world - particularly China, India and the United States - does the same thing.
As Canada's carbon warehouse, Alberta is ground zero for the political battle over the country's future. Already devastated by the collapse in commodity prices and denied increased market access pipelines in all directions, Alberta's future continues to be held hostage on the actions of the federal government and provinces like British Columbia and Quebec which oppose pipeline which would provide increased access to tidewater for Alberta’s oil production.
It is not that climate change is not real, or that Canadians should not rise to the challenge. But until there are practical replacements for heavy transportation fuels (airplanes, ships, transport trucks) or the myriad of petrochemical and plastic products derived from petroleum, the world will not be going out of the oil business anytime soon.
Alberta oil's and gas industry is already a world leader in innovative fossil fuel production and processing techniques. The most practical path forward to effectively address this global problem is new methods and technologies to no only reduce our emissions but help other countries reduce theirs. Alberta can be a solution to the climate change challenge by continuing to be what is already is - one of the world's safest, most environmentally responsible and technically advanced fossil fuel producers.
From Miracle To Menace is the first and most comprehensive examination of the details and complexities of these complex and intertwined issues. Where Alberta and the country are going, and the future of both as dealing with climate change grows as a major global geopolitical challenge.
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Alberta has become ground zero for the future of the world’s oil and gas producing regions. Because of climate change, carbon’s future will be painful, expensive, and incredibly disruptive.
If the future unfolds as we’re told it must, climate change will result in the greatest financial upheaval in world history costing trillions and impacting billions.
Except this massive adjustment to a low-carbon society is only happening in Alberta. As every other major oil producing jurisdiction in the world does whatever it can to keep up with rising demand, internal and external forces have stranded Alberta’s enormous oil and gas reserves with devastating economic consequences.
If the objective is to tackle climate change, this is a colossal failure. Alberta and Canada’s financial sacrifices alone will not change the composition of the global atmosphere. Without cooperation from the rest of the world, Canadians are committing economic suicide with no tangible rewards. Because of climate change, almost everyone has an opinion of what the future of Canada’s fossil fuel industries – and by default Alberta - should be. But whatever problems producing consuming coal, oil and natural gas may cause, carbon resources remain one of Canada’s most important industries and economic engines, employing hundreds of thousands of Canadians directly and indirectly.
Canada can contribute more to to helping the world reduce emissions. But this will require expanding our understanding of the issue beyond our borders and embracing policies and solutions that help the world, not just penalize certain regions, industries and citizens. This is the book Canada needs right now, a comprehensive investigation and analysis that answers all the questions about climate change, Alberta, its oil and gas industry, and the future of the province and the country.
